Typhoon Ondoy...Next Super Typhoon Pepeng
'Pepeng' intensifies further; storm signal up in 10 areas
SOPHIA M. DEDACE, GMANews.TV
10/01/2009 | 08:22 AM
| | More
(UPDATE 11) Typhoon "Pepeng (Parma)" intensified further on Thursday afternoon, prompting the government to place eight provinces and two islands under storm alert levels.
Under Public Storm Signal No. 1 are Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Quezon, Aurora, Sorsogon, Burias Island and Polillo Island in Luzon; and Northern Samar in the Visayas, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said in its 11 p.m. advisory.
Catanduanes in the Bicol region meanwhile is under Public Storm Signal No. 2, Pagasa said.
Pepeng is the 16th weather disturbance that hit the Philippines this year. The country has not yet recovered from the devastation caused by tropical storm "Ondoy (Ketsana)," which claimed at least 277 lives and damaged close to P5 billion worth of infrastructure and agricultural crops.
PAGASA'S CLASSIFICATION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration classifies tropical cyclones according to their degrees of intensity.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: A discrete weather system with an apparent circulation. It is characterized by a poorly developed wind circulation of weak velocities and with one or no closed isobars (isobars are lines of equal pressures). This is commonly observed throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION: A weak low pressure disturbance with a definite surface circulation having maximum wind speed of up to 63 kilometers per hour (kph). It has one or more closed isobars and is most common in the equatorial regions or intertropical convergence and less frequent in the trades.
TROPICAL STORM: A moderate tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 64 to 118 kph and with closed isobars.
TYPHOON: An intense tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed exceeding 118 kph.
SUPER TYPHOON: A more intense tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed exceeding 220 kph.
Sources: Pagasa weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz and Pagasa's article. Pagasa said Pepeng had gained strength and is now packing maximum winds of 195 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 230 kph.
As of 10 p.m. Thursday, the typhoon, carrying what Pagasa called "disastrous" winds, was spotted 360 kilometers (km) east northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar and was forecast to move west northwest at 19 kph.
Heavy rains
Heavy rains are expected in the Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon starting Thursday night, weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz told GMANews.TV. The rains would be triggered not just by Pepeng but by the southwest monsoon as well, he added.
On Friday afternoon, the typhoon is expected to be 100 km northeast of Virac in Catanduanes, according to Pagasa's 5 p.m. weather bulletin.
The latest bulletin said Pepeng was expected to make a landfall between the provinces of Aurora and Isabela on Saturday noon. By Saturday evening, it is expected to be at the vicinity of Mt. Province.
On Sunday afternoon, it is expected to be 250 km west northwest of Laoag City in Ilocos Norte.
Not yet a super typhoon
With 195 kph of maximum sustained winds, Pepeng has not yet intensified into a super typhoon, which carries minimum sustained winds of 220 kph, according to Cruz.
A separate forecast from the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center has already classified Pepeng as a super-typhoon. It said Pepeng was already packing maximum sustained winds of 240 kph based on a one-minute average over open water.
However, forecasts of weather agencies in Asia - Korea Meteorological Administration, Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, and Japan Meteorological Agency - based on a 10-minute average, are similar to that of the Philippine weather bureau’s 195 kph.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s National Meteorological Center said Pepeng’s maximum sustained winds had already reached 200 kph on a two-minute average.
The image shows typhoon Pepeng as it continues approaching northern Philippines. Click here to view a larger version. US Navy/NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division
But the public should not underestimate Pepeng's strength, according to Cruz.
“Ang concern kay Pepeng ay ang kanyang disastrous winds (Our concern is Pepeng's disastrous winds)," said Cruz.
"Kahit walang mararanasang masyadong malalakas na ulan sa Metro Manila at sa mga kapatagan, pero ang mga pag-ulan sa kabundukan ay magiging sanhi pa rin ng pagbaha. Yan ang ating babantayan," added Cruz.
(Even if there will be less rainfall in Metro Manila, residents must still prepare against floods because rainfall in the mountains could trigger floods.)
Cruz said Pepeng’s strength could be more than Category 5, the highest tropical cyclone level, based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The said category packs minimum sustained winds of 250 kph.
“Ito ay napakalakas na bagyo. Dahil nasa karagatan pa ito, sa Philippine Sea, may oras pa para lumakas…kaya isang malaking bagyo ang ating binabantayan ngayon," Cruz said in a separate interview on 24 Oras.
Above chart shows the progression of Pepeng's expected movement for the next several days.
(This is really a strong typhoon. Because it’s still in the Philippine Sea, it still has time to intensify further. So we are monitoring a really strong typhoon now.)
Dams to release water
Major water reservoirs in Luzon will be releasing water to prepare against dam spills when Pepeng, the 16th weather disturbance to hit the Philippines this year, starts rampaging across the country, Pagasa's Susan Villanueva said earlier in the day.
“Ang major reservoir ay magpapakawala ng tubig para ibaba ang safe level ng dam at elevation. Para pagdating ng ulan, meron tayong storage at hihina na ang pag-spill pagdating ng ulan at hindi na sasabay," she said.
(Major water reservoirs will be releasing water to achieve a safe level. In that way, we will have storage space when Peping arrives and water spills will be minimized.)
During Ondoy’s rampage, there was widespread public speculation that several dams in the region released volumes of water at the same time, causing the unprecedented swelling of the Marikina and Pasig Rivers. Operators of dams have denied the reports.
Fear gripped Metro Manilans Thursday noon as dark clouds dumped heavy rains on parts of Quezon City, causing zero visibility in some thoroughfares.
The rains that started pouring minutes before 12 noon brought some motorists along Tomas Morato Avenue to a halt. Commuters became jittery, fearing that the showers were caused by Pepeng and would worsen the situation in the metropolis where many areas remain stuck in mud and floods due to tropical storm "Ondoy" (Ketsana)
But Cruz said the noonday rain had nothing to do with Pepeng, and was just "part of a thunderstorm."
Meanwhile, the Coast Guard reported that 139 passengers were left stranded in the capital city of Albay province on Thursday morning due to the rains triggered by the onset of Pepeng. They were stranded in various ports and transportation terminals in three barangays (villages) in Legazpi City.
Tropical depression "Melor"
Meanwhile, Pagasa weather forecaster Mario Palafox said a tropical depression (international codename "Melor") which is following Pepeng is still outside Philippine territory and is unlikely to enhance the typhoon.
"Itong tropical depression papasok sa boundary ng Philippine area of responsibility, pero 'di makaapekto sa atin (The tropical depression after Pepeng may enter the boundary of the Philippine area of responsibility but is unlikely to affect us directly)," he added. - with reports from Mark Merueñas and Kim Tan, GMANews.TV
SOPHIA M. DEDACE, GMANews.TV
10/01/2009 | 08:22 AM
| | More
(UPDATE 11) Typhoon "Pepeng (Parma)" intensified further on Thursday afternoon, prompting the government to place eight provinces and two islands under storm alert levels.
Under Public Storm Signal No. 1 are Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Quezon, Aurora, Sorsogon, Burias Island and Polillo Island in Luzon; and Northern Samar in the Visayas, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said in its 11 p.m. advisory.
Catanduanes in the Bicol region meanwhile is under Public Storm Signal No. 2, Pagasa said.
Pepeng is the 16th weather disturbance that hit the Philippines this year. The country has not yet recovered from the devastation caused by tropical storm "Ondoy (Ketsana)," which claimed at least 277 lives and damaged close to P5 billion worth of infrastructure and agricultural crops.
PAGASA'S CLASSIFICATION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration classifies tropical cyclones according to their degrees of intensity.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: A discrete weather system with an apparent circulation. It is characterized by a poorly developed wind circulation of weak velocities and with one or no closed isobars (isobars are lines of equal pressures). This is commonly observed throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION: A weak low pressure disturbance with a definite surface circulation having maximum wind speed of up to 63 kilometers per hour (kph). It has one or more closed isobars and is most common in the equatorial regions or intertropical convergence and less frequent in the trades.
TROPICAL STORM: A moderate tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 64 to 118 kph and with closed isobars.
TYPHOON: An intense tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed exceeding 118 kph.
SUPER TYPHOON: A more intense tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed exceeding 220 kph.
Sources: Pagasa weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz and Pagasa's article. Pagasa said Pepeng had gained strength and is now packing maximum winds of 195 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 230 kph.
As of 10 p.m. Thursday, the typhoon, carrying what Pagasa called "disastrous" winds, was spotted 360 kilometers (km) east northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar and was forecast to move west northwest at 19 kph.
Heavy rains
Heavy rains are expected in the Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon starting Thursday night, weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz told GMANews.TV. The rains would be triggered not just by Pepeng but by the southwest monsoon as well, he added.
On Friday afternoon, the typhoon is expected to be 100 km northeast of Virac in Catanduanes, according to Pagasa's 5 p.m. weather bulletin.
The latest bulletin said Pepeng was expected to make a landfall between the provinces of Aurora and Isabela on Saturday noon. By Saturday evening, it is expected to be at the vicinity of Mt. Province.
On Sunday afternoon, it is expected to be 250 km west northwest of Laoag City in Ilocos Norte.
Not yet a super typhoon
With 195 kph of maximum sustained winds, Pepeng has not yet intensified into a super typhoon, which carries minimum sustained winds of 220 kph, according to Cruz.
A separate forecast from the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center has already classified Pepeng as a super-typhoon. It said Pepeng was already packing maximum sustained winds of 240 kph based on a one-minute average over open water.
However, forecasts of weather agencies in Asia - Korea Meteorological Administration, Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, and Japan Meteorological Agency - based on a 10-minute average, are similar to that of the Philippine weather bureau’s 195 kph.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s National Meteorological Center said Pepeng’s maximum sustained winds had already reached 200 kph on a two-minute average.
The image shows typhoon Pepeng as it continues approaching northern Philippines. Click here to view a larger version. US Navy/NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division
But the public should not underestimate Pepeng's strength, according to Cruz.
“Ang concern kay Pepeng ay ang kanyang disastrous winds (Our concern is Pepeng's disastrous winds)," said Cruz.
"Kahit walang mararanasang masyadong malalakas na ulan sa Metro Manila at sa mga kapatagan, pero ang mga pag-ulan sa kabundukan ay magiging sanhi pa rin ng pagbaha. Yan ang ating babantayan," added Cruz.
(Even if there will be less rainfall in Metro Manila, residents must still prepare against floods because rainfall in the mountains could trigger floods.)
Cruz said Pepeng’s strength could be more than Category 5, the highest tropical cyclone level, based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The said category packs minimum sustained winds of 250 kph.
“Ito ay napakalakas na bagyo. Dahil nasa karagatan pa ito, sa Philippine Sea, may oras pa para lumakas…kaya isang malaking bagyo ang ating binabantayan ngayon," Cruz said in a separate interview on 24 Oras.
Above chart shows the progression of Pepeng's expected movement for the next several days.
(This is really a strong typhoon. Because it’s still in the Philippine Sea, it still has time to intensify further. So we are monitoring a really strong typhoon now.)
Dams to release water
Major water reservoirs in Luzon will be releasing water to prepare against dam spills when Pepeng, the 16th weather disturbance to hit the Philippines this year, starts rampaging across the country, Pagasa's Susan Villanueva said earlier in the day.
“Ang major reservoir ay magpapakawala ng tubig para ibaba ang safe level ng dam at elevation. Para pagdating ng ulan, meron tayong storage at hihina na ang pag-spill pagdating ng ulan at hindi na sasabay," she said.
(Major water reservoirs will be releasing water to achieve a safe level. In that way, we will have storage space when Peping arrives and water spills will be minimized.)
During Ondoy’s rampage, there was widespread public speculation that several dams in the region released volumes of water at the same time, causing the unprecedented swelling of the Marikina and Pasig Rivers. Operators of dams have denied the reports.
Fear gripped Metro Manilans Thursday noon as dark clouds dumped heavy rains on parts of Quezon City, causing zero visibility in some thoroughfares.
The rains that started pouring minutes before 12 noon brought some motorists along Tomas Morato Avenue to a halt. Commuters became jittery, fearing that the showers were caused by Pepeng and would worsen the situation in the metropolis where many areas remain stuck in mud and floods due to tropical storm "Ondoy" (Ketsana)
But Cruz said the noonday rain had nothing to do with Pepeng, and was just "part of a thunderstorm."
Meanwhile, the Coast Guard reported that 139 passengers were left stranded in the capital city of Albay province on Thursday morning due to the rains triggered by the onset of Pepeng. They were stranded in various ports and transportation terminals in three barangays (villages) in Legazpi City.
Tropical depression "Melor"
Meanwhile, Pagasa weather forecaster Mario Palafox said a tropical depression (international codename "Melor") which is following Pepeng is still outside Philippine territory and is unlikely to enhance the typhoon.
"Itong tropical depression papasok sa boundary ng Philippine area of responsibility, pero 'di makaapekto sa atin (The tropical depression after Pepeng may enter the boundary of the Philippine area of responsibility but is unlikely to affect us directly)," he added. - with reports from Mark Merueñas and Kim Tan, GMANews.TV
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